EFL Championship REVIEW 12 Sep 2026: Middlesbrough win a seven-goal afternoon, and the three home favourites who could not

Our model made three of Saturday's ten Championship fixtures upsets, and all three had the same shape: a home side we favoured that could not win. West Bromwich Albion were rated at 43.4 per cent to beat Queens Park Rangers and drew 1-1. Charlton Athletic, at 48.4 per cent against Portsmouth, drew 0-0. Watford, at 50.3 per cent, lost 1-2 at home to Stoke City.

The best of the football was at the Riverside, where Middlesbrough beat Norwich City 4-3. Mohamed Touré scored for Norwich in the first minute, Sebastian Berhalter levelled in the fourth and Amario Cozier-Duberry put Middlesbrough ahead in the seventh. Berhalter scored again in the 36th minute for 3-1. Norwich sent on Jovon Makama and Jacob Wright, and both scored, in the 70th minute and the 75th, to make it 3-3. Ashley Phillips, also a substitute, won it in the first minute of stoppage time. Cozier-Duberry's goal was his first for the club, on his first Championship start since joining on loan from Brighton, and Phillips had not scored in the league since arriving from Tottenham.

West Bromwich Albion's afternoon turned on the unluckiest goal of the day. QPR led in the 38th minute through an own goal by Chris Mepham, the Albion defender who was wearing the captain's armband, after Rumarn Burrell's low cross deflected off his head. Callum Styles, playing at right-back because Albion had nobody else for the position, equalised in the 41st minute with a curled shot from outside the area. Pierce Charles then kept QPR level, turning away Isaac Price and tipping over a Mepham header.

Charlton Athletic and Portsmouth were goalless at The Valley, where Millenic Alli volleyed over from close range in the 32nd minute and Portsmouth managed no shot on target in the first half. Charlton had played on the Wednesday and Portsmouth had not played all week, which Nathan Jones had complained about beforehand.

Watford lost 1-2 at home to Stoke City, who had won none of their previous eleven away league matches. Jack McGlynn scored in the fourth minute of first-half stoppage time and Eric Bocat added a second in the 57th. Amin Nabizada's 25-yard shot in the first minute of stoppage time was the only reply. Michail Antonio, signed the day before the match, was among the Watford substitutes and was not used.

Bolton Wanderers beat Cardiff City 1-0 and left it to the 90th minute, Thierry Gale heading in Theo Bair's cross at the far post. Both had come on at half-time. Gavin Bazunu had kept Bolton in it with ten saves, twice denying Yousef Salech. Steven Schumacher, the Bolton manager, said afterwards: “We have been trying for 18 months or so now to get our wingers to arrive at the back stick and head one in so we've finally done it.” Cardiff have now gone seven Championship matches without a win.

Blackburn Rovers beat Millwall 3-1, Oladapo Afolayan scoring in the 41st minute and the 58th either side of a Lyndon Dykes penalty, with Andri Gudjohnsen adding a third in the third minute of stoppage time. Southampton beat Bristol City 4-1 with two from Cyle Larin and further goals from Kuryu Matsuki and Finn Azaz, after Lorent Tolaj had replied. Swansea City beat Burnley 3-1 through Adam Idah, Moussa Kounfolo Yeo and Žan Vipotnik, with Largie Ramazani scoring for Burnley; that was the model's most confident call of the day at 63.2 per cent.

Birmingham City won 2-1 at Derby County, where Bobby Clark scored in the 40th minute and Carlos Vicente and Paik Seung-Ho replied in the 42nd and the 64th. Lincoln City won 1-0 at Preston North End through Freddie Draper in the 81st minute. Both were away wins the model had called.