Premier League REVIEW 5 Sep 2026: one from seven — the day the model's home calls ran into a wall of draws

A chastening Saturday for our model. It made the home side favourite in all seven Premier League games and got just one of them right. Its two most confident calls even split the difference: Man City duly saw off Coventry 1-0, Erling Haaland heading in Antoine Semenyo's cross, but Hull City — the model's single biggest home favourite of the day — were held to a goalless draw by Aston Villa.

The clearest miss came at Fulham, where the model leaned to the home side and Crystal Palace won 2-3 instead. Joshua King put Fulham ahead in the 11th, but Tyrick Mitchell levelled in the 35th, César Palacios turned it Palace's way in the 42nd, and Mitchell struck again in the 54th for the first brace of his career; Ben Chilwell's 77th-minute reply came too late.

Everywhere else the model's home picks ran into a wall of draws. Newcastle, backed to beat Bournemouth, twice fell behind and drew 2-2 — Marcus Tavernier and a Malick Thiaw own goal put the visitors ahead before Harvey Barnes and Jacob Ramsey levelled. Brentford and Sunderland finished 1-1, Vitaly Janelt's strike cancelled out by an Enzo Le Fée penalty. Brighton were pegged back to 1-1 by Leeds, Jayden Bogle's opener answered by a Luka Vušković header. And Nottingham Forest and Spurs played out a goalless draw, Neco Williams having a Forest goal disallowed by VAR. One right from seven: a day to file and learn from.