Premier League PREVIEW 13 Sep 2026: Our models split four and four on the Manchester derby, and Coventry are still looking for their first goal

Two Premier League matches on Sunday and our model calls both of them the same way: the away side. Brighton and Hove Albion are 44.0 per cent at Coventry City against 29.1 for the home side and 26.8 for the draw; Manchester City are 42.2 per cent at Old Trafford against 32.4 and 25.4. Neither is a confident call, and the second one is the more interesting for it.

On the Manchester derby our eight models split four and four. Elo, the home baseline, the venue model and recent venue form all make it Manchester United; form, the market, league position and the table make it Manchester City. When the set divides that evenly the consensus is an average of a disagreement rather than a conclusion, and it is worth saying that plainly rather than dressing 42.2 per cent up as a forecast.

Michael Carrick takes Manchester United into it having conceded in all three league games so far — beaten 2-0 at Hull City on the opening day, 5-2 winners over Ipswich Town, and 2-2 at Everton. He is without Carlos Baleba, Amad Diallo, Matthijs de Ligt and Manuel Ugarte, and Luke Shaw faces a fitness test after cramp at Goodison. Benjamin Sesko has scored off the bench in each of the last two matches, though Matheus Cunha has led the line in every league game.

Enzo Maresca takes charge of his first Manchester derby since succeeding Pep Guardiola in June, with three league wins behind him: 2-1 against Bournemouth, 4-1 at Crystal Palace and 1-0 against Coventry City. Jeremy Doku is out with the calf injury from the Community Shield; Nico O'Reilly is available again. The three summer midfield signings — Enzo Fernandez, Elliot Anderson and Ayyoub Bouaddi — could start together for the first time.

Anderson has given the week its edge. On joining he described City as the kings of Manchester, which will not have gone unnoticed at the other end of the city, and Carrick was asked about it: "I'm definitely not using that phrase at all." Maresca's defence was that Anderson grew up in the fifteen years when it was true.

The earlier match is the harder one to read from the outside. Coventry City are back in the Premier League and have not scored in it yet — 3-0 at Arsenal, 0-1 at home to Hull City, 1-0 at Manchester City. Frank Lampard is missing Haji Wright, Kaine Kesler-Hayden, Luke Woolfenden and Josh Eccles, though Stephen Mfuni is available again having been ineligible against his parent club last week.

Carl Rushworth faces Brighton and Hove Albion having left them for Coventry City permanently in August, in a deal that made him Coventry's record signing after a loan season that brought seventeen clean sheets. Yasin Ayari goes the other way, returning to a club he spent a season on loan at.

Brighton and Hove Albion arrive with a long absentee list of their own — Yankuba Minteh, Kaoru Mitoma, Jack Hinshelwood, Mats Wieffer, Stefanos Tzimas and Evan Ferguson among them — and a record that has gone 4-0 against Aston Villa, 4-3 down at Chelsea and 1-1 with Leeds United at home. Fabian Hurzeler was complimentary about Coventry City's performance at Manchester City, which is either courtesy or a warning.