Premier League REVIEW 13 Sep 2026: Manchester City had Phil Foden sent off in the 23rd minute and won the derby anyway

Two Premier League fixtures on Saturday, both won by the visiting side, and our models had called both of them that way. Coventry City 0, Brighton and Hove Albion 5. Manchester United 0, Manchester City 1. A red card in each, and they did entirely opposite things to the two matches.

At Old Trafford it went to the side that lost a man. Phil Foden was sent off in the 23rd minute for kicking out at Bruno Fernandes, after Fernandes had fouled him first; the referee Michael Oliver described it to the video room as a kick into the body, and Fernandes was not booked for his part. Erling Haaland scored in the 60th, finishing from a tight angle after Josko Gvardiol's delivery, and the flag went up before a long review decided he had been onside and that Enzo Fernandez, offside nearby, had not interfered.

Manchester United had the woodwork twice, through Marcus Rashford and Kobbie Mainoo, and Gianluigi Donnarumma saved point-blank from Bryan Mbeumo in stoppage time. Enzo Maresca was booked before half-time and finished the afternoon running down the touchline to the away supporters. There were boos at the final whistle.

Our models made Manchester City the pick at 39.3 per cent against 34.9 for the home side and 25.9 for the draw, and the eight were split four and four: the home baseline, venue, recent venue form and Elo all said Manchester United, while league position, form, the table and the market said Manchester City. It is the same split, the same way round, that we published in the preview, and the market half of it was right.

The other match turned on its red card rather than surviving it. Charalampos Kostoulas put Brighton and Hove Albion ahead in the 36th, Malick Yalcouye made it two in the 51st, and two minutes later Taiwo Awoniyi was sent off for an elbow into the face of Maxim De Cuyper, given as violent conduct and upheld on review. Pascal Gross converted a penalty in the 69th after Bobby Thomas had fouled Kostoulas, Lewis Dunk scored from around 25 yards in the 83rd, and Yasin Ayari curled in the fifth in the fourth minute of stoppage time.

Ayari's was a small piece of circularity: he spent a season on loan at Coventry City, and he was part of the deal that took Carl Rushworth the other way. Rushworth, Coventry City's record signing, was in goal against the club he left.

Frank Lampard was clear about what the afternoon had shown him. “The level has gone up... there's a millisecond less to get your shot away and there's a bit more pressure in the Premier League,” he said. He also thought the first half had been decent before the second goal and the dismissal settled it, which the order of events supports.

Our models had Brighton and Hove Albion at 40.2 per cent against 32.4 and 27.5, split exactly as the derby was, and on a day when both away sides won there was not much between being right and being right for the wrong reasons.