Premier League PREVIEW 14 Sep 2026: Leeds United are our favourites against Newcastle United by four points of a percentage, and two of our models pick the other side

One Premier League fixture on Monday night, and it is the closest call our models have made this week. Leeds United are 39.6 per cent at home to Newcastle United, against 32.0 for the visitors and 28.4 for the draw. That is a favourite in name rather than in confidence, and the set behind it is not settled either: the venue model and recent venue form both make Newcastle United the pick at 40.2 per cent, while Elo is the outlier at the other end with Leeds United at 53.0. When eight models produce a spread that wide, the consensus is the middle of an argument.

Both sides come in from a Premier League draw and a cup tie that went very differently. Leeds United drew 1-1 at Brighton and Hove Albion on 5 September and then lost 6-3 at Chelsea in the EFL Cup four days later. Newcastle United drew 2-2 at home with AFC Bournemouth on the same Saturday and won 1-0 at Millwall in their own cup tie, Joe Willock scoring. Nine days of rest each, one of them spent on a night at Stamford Bridge that Daniel Farke described as a crazy game.

The visitors arrive under a manager who was not there in July. Eddie Howe left Newcastle United after almost five years, less than a day after a 4-1 pre-season defeat to Bristol City, and Matthias Jaissle has taken his place and gone unbeaten through his first five matches in charge, three won and two drawn.

Farke was asked about the change and answered about the man who made it necessary: "I appreciate still so much what Eddie Howe has done. I think he has left a legacy over there and done a tremendous job over so many years." He also called Newcastle United difficult to beat and dangerous on the counter-attack, which is a fair description of a side that has won at Tottenham Hotspur and drawn with Liverpool inside the last month.

Jaissle has been similarly polite about the fixture, calling Elland Road a tough away match and Leeds United a top team whose manager is doing an excellent job, and saying his players will have to match the atmosphere to take anything from it.

Leeds United are without Joe Rodon, whose thigh problem is not expected to clear until a few games after the international break, and Mateo Joseph is still working back from a knee ligament injury. Ilia Gruev could return from a knee problem. Farke reported no new injuries out of the Chelsea tie.

Newcastle United have the longer list. Joelinton, Dan Burn and William Osula are out; goalkeeper Ewen Jaouen is a major doubt with an ankle injury taken at Millwall, and Amar Dedic is a doubt after coming off in the same match with a hamstring problem. Matias Fernandez-Pardo, two substitute appearances into his time at the club, is close to a first start and the decision on him is being left late.

Our own record here is worth stating plainly rather than dressing up. Leeds United have played one home match this season, a 1-1 draw with Brentford, and Newcastle United one away match, the 2-0 at Tottenham Hotspur. A model that leans on venue has almost nothing to lean on, which is exactly why the eight of them disagree and why 39.6 per cent is the honest number.