MLS REVIEW 4 Sep 2026: the model backed Nashville, the goalkeepers had other ideas

Our model leaned to Nashville on the road at New York City FC, and the night belonged instead to the two goalkeepers: 0-0, with neither the call nor the form side getting what they came for. Nashville had arrived eyeing a fifth straight win and a season sweep of NYCFC and left with a point, held by a side that had gone five league games without a win. Brian Schwake in the Nashville goal and Matt Freese in New York's kept everything out.

Freese was the busier of the two, credited with three saves to Schwake's one, and Nashville's best moment took a crucial deflection and spun off target. Hany Mukhtar went close twice before going into the book in the 53rd minute for serious foul play, after Andy Najar and Patrick Yazbek had already been cautioned. NYCFC's clearest sight came early, Ojeda testing Schwake in the 15th, and Kevin O'Toole and substitute Malachi Jones were booked as the game tightened.

It fit the shape both camps had described. Pascal Jansen had said of Nashville, "we're always able to make it a very competitive game between ourselves" — and competitive it stayed to the last. For Nashville a point and another Schwake clean sheet; for NYCFC a point, and the wait for a win goes on. For the model, a near-miss on a day the draw beat the call.