MLS REVIEW 13 Sep 2026: Austin take down the round's surest call at BC Place

Vancouver at home to Austin was the surest thing on the card by our reckoning. It was the one fixture of the round our model treated as close to settled before a ball was kicked, and the closing market priced it almost identically, so this was not a case of our numbers being eccentric. Austin won 2-1 at BC Place. Christian Ramírez scored both of their goals, in the 28th minute and the 60th, either side of Brian White's equaliser in the 49th, and it was the first time Austin had won there.

The evening turned on a moment earlier than any of those. In the 40th minute, with Vancouver already a goal behind, Ryan Gauld put a penalty against the crossbar, his first miss from the spot since October 2023. Vancouver struck the woodwork again on the very next attack after White had levelled. Thomas Müller had been left out with a dead leg picked up three days before, a debutant right back was withdrawn at half time, and a Canadian Championship semi-final second leg was three days away. Jesper Sørensen said afterwards: “I'm so unhappy with that first goal. It just puts us in a horrible position, and there's nothing. There's nothing there.”

It was that sort of round for the board. We had made the home side favourite at Real Salt Lake, at LA Galaxy, at Chicago and at Vancouver, and not one of those four came in. NYCFC won 2-0 in Sandy, through Nico Fernández Mercau's free kick in the 41st minute and a Luighi Hanri Sousa Santos finish in the 61st. Seattle drew 1-1 in Carson, Paul Arriola equalising in the 81st after Marco Reus had converted a penalty in the 44th. New England won 2-1 at Soldier Field, where Dor Turgeman scored in the 39th and Peyton Miller in the 47th before Maren Haile-Selassie replied in the 62nd; Chicago had 21 shots to New England's four and 13 corners to none, and lost anyway. Where we leaned away from home advantage we fared no better, making LAFC the pick at Sporting KC and Houston the pick at San Jose, and both were beaten.

Sporting KC's 3-1 win was the most emphatic contradiction of the lot. Andre Luiz, a club-record signing, scored his first goal for them on his first start at their own ground in the 18th minute; Taylor Calheira made it two in the 31st; Denis Bouanga pulled one back for LAFC in the 47th; Jacob Bartlett settled it in the 71st. At San Jose it took less: Daniel Munie's goal in the 38th minute beat Houston 1-0, a result finished off by a double save in the closing stages that kept the clean sheet intact.

The best thread of the round ran between two clubs who meet again within the week. Rafael Navarro joined St Louis City from Colorado at the start of the month in a club-record deal, and on his home debut he scored twice in a 4-2 win over Minnesota, in the 38th minute and from the penalty spot in the 57th. Chancalay had put Minnesota ahead inside five minutes; Edelman levelled in the 18th and Carlo Holse turned it around in the 22nd, Holse having a hand in all three of the first-half goals. Kelvin Yeboah answered from the spot in the 61st, and Minnesota finished with ten men after Kyle Duncan, booked in the 64th, was sent off in the 80th. Meanwhile in Commerce City, Colorado beat CF Montréal 1-0 through a penalty taken by Paxten Aaronson, who took that job on when Navarro left and has spoken about knowing he had to step up in a big way. The two clubs face each other in a US Open Cup semi-final three days after this round.

The calls that did hold were the plain ones. Colorado's was one, St Louis City's another, and at Toyota Stadium, Dallas beat Portland 2-1, Logan Farrington scoring in the 45th minute and Joaquin Valiente in the 87th before Ariel Lassiter replied deep into stoppage time. Three from nine is not a night the model will want framed, and the honest reading is that the round punished the assumption sitting underneath most of those calls, which was that home advantage would settle the close ones. On this card it settled almost nothing.