EFL Championship PREVIEW 20 Sep 2026: The Black Country derby returns to Molineux in front of fans for the first time in fourteen years

Two fixtures make up Sunday's Championship card, and our model treats them very differently. Norwich City at home to Bolton Wanderers is the firmer call of the pair: the model puts Norwich at three-in-five, with a Bolton win rated below one in six. The Black Country derby at Molineux is the one it is least sure of. Wolverhampton Wanderers are favoured, but at a shade under half, and behind them the draw and a West Bromwich Albion win are split almost exactly evenly, twenty-six per cent against twenty-seven. Neither match is flagged as an upset in the making. The derby is simply a game the model cannot separate once you look past the favourite.

Wolves go into it having won at Sheffield United on 13 September, a game settled in the ninetieth minute by Raul Jimenez from a Tommy Doyle pass. Jimenez will not play this time. Cesar Peixoto, appointed at Molineux in June and in his first season in charge since the club came down, was blunt about it: the striker is out, the knee problem picked up in midweek is less serious than first feared, and at thirty-five he will not be asked to play a third game in quick succession. Yerson Mosquera and Rafiki Said are also unavailable, with Adam Armstrong expected to lead the line, while Jean-Ricner Bellegarde got his first minutes of the season in the midweek Carabao Cup defeat at Everton. Peixoto has made no secret of what the afternoon is. "I understand what this derby means," he said. "We've put videos around the club so all of the players can understand what this derby means."

West Bromwich Albion arrive unbeaten in four, the most recent of those a home draw with Queens Park Rangers on 12 September in which Chris Mepham's own goal put the visitors in front and Callum Styles levelled it. James Morrison, made permanent head coach in April after two spells as caretaker, has had this fixture marked since the calendar was published, and brought the club historian in to address the squad before the season started so that the newer players understood what it is. He is without the right-back Nolan Galves, signed from Rodez in the summer, who damaged a meniscus against Derby County and faces months out; Brayann Pereira is available again after suspension. It is Albion's first visit to Molineux in front of supporters in fourteen years.

Carrow Road is the clearer call, and the recent evidence there cuts both ways. Middlesbrough beat Norwich City 4-3 on 12 September, a game Norwich led inside the opening minute, and Manchester City beat them 5-0 in the Carabao Cup in midweek. Philippe Clement, head coach since November 2025, expects Kenny McLean, Andre Brooks, Jovon Makama and Jose Cordoba back in contention after they were rested at the Etihad, while Ali Ahmed and Lucien Mahovo remain out and Mirko Topic has only lately resumed individual work after a cruciate injury. Bolton Wanderers, in their first season back in the second tier after beating Stockport County 4-1 in the play-off final at Wembley in May, beat Cardiff City 1-0 on 12 September through a ninetieth-minute Thierry Gale goal. Steven Schumacher is without Luca Stephenson and Lewis Brunt and expects Chris Forino back, and has been careful to make little of Norwich's cup night, pointing to how many changes they made for it.

So the shape of the day is one home side the model rates firmly and one it rates only narrowly, with the derby's other two outcomes so close together that a draw and an Albion win are all but indistinguishable to it. Molineux goes first.