EFL Championship REVIEW 20 Sep 2026: Bolton win a seven-goal afternoon at Carrow Road and break our clearest call of the day

Two fixtures closed the Championship weekend, and our model had a firm view of one of them and almost none of the other. Norwich City at home to Bolton Wanderers was the clearer call, a home win at three in five. The Black Country derby at Molineux was the one it could barely separate: Wolverhampton Wanderers favoured at a shade under half, with a draw and a West Bromwich Albion win rated level behind them. The afternoon then inverted that confidence. The derby we could not split went exactly as the favourite suggested, and the fixture we were surest about is the one our own record marks as an upset.

Wolverhampton Wanderers 1-0 West Bromwich Albion turned on one goalkeeper and one mistake. Max O'Leary kept Albion level through a first half Wolves dominated, the first of three saves arriving on twelve minutes when he turned Nasser Djiga's header onto the crossbar. On fifty minutes Nathaniel Phillips, trying to play out from the back, gave the ball instead to Fer Lopez, who finished past him. Nothing else was added. Jayson Molumby was booked on twenty-five minutes and Phillips himself on forty-four, Marshall Munetsi on sixty-nine, and Albion did not manage a goal in reply in front of 30,892 at Molineux, 2,549 of them travelling supporters. James Morrison did not hide behind the error afterwards, and did not hang his defender out for it either. "He owned up to his mistake, but he's been immense over the last couple of weeks," he said. There was a flashpoint at the whistle too, Morrison saying he felt a member of the Wolves staff had celebrated in front of the Albion bench.

Carrow Road was the other kind of afternoon entirely. Mohamed Toure put Norwich City in front on five minutes, a first-time finish from Andre Brooks's pass, and was off the field by fifteen with his left arm cradled in a makeshift sling after a collision. Thierry Gale had equalised in between, on eight, cutting inside Jack Stacey and finding the near post from Ruben Rodrigues's ball. Ruairi McConville headed Norwich back in front on nineteen, unmarked at the back post from Oscar Schwartau's delivery, and Gaizka Larrazabal levelled again on forty-two, lashing Max Conway's cross into the roof of the net off a deflection.

Bolton Wanderers led for the first time on forty-seven, Sam Dalby running onto Kyliane Dong's pass and lifting it over Vladan Kovacevic. Jack Stacey curled Norwich level again on sixty-one from Paris Maghoma's pass, off the far post. Then Steven Schumacher's substitutions decided it. Atsuki Ito and Samuel Iling Junior came on together on seventy, and on seventy-two Iling Junior fed Ito, who took a touch and drove low into the corner. Norwich City pushed for a fourth through the closing stages and did not find one. Norwich City 3-4 Bolton Wanderers, and Bolton, who had taken one point from three previous away matches this season, had their first away win in the division.

So we got the hard one right and the easy one wrong, which is the more instructive way round. Wolverhampton Wanderers were the narrower pick of the pair and repaid it without ever looking comfortable about it. Norwich City were the firmer call, and lost at home in a seven-goal match to a side our model gave a one-in-six chance of winning. Seven goals, four of them scored by a promoted club away from home, is not the shape a sixty per cent home price describes.