EFL League One REVIEW 19 Sep 2026: Bromley beat Huddersfield, and our model ends the day one from eleven

Eleven League One matches on Saturday, eleven calls from our model, and one of them right. The fixture it got most wrong is the place to begin. Huddersfield Town were the firmest away pick on the whole card at Hayes Lane, and Bromley beat them 2-1. Bromley, a club in its first season at the third tier, went in front on nine minutes, John Joshua McKiernan converting from a corner that gave goalkeeper Matty Young trouble in the air. Ashley Fletcher glanced in Cameron Humphreys's delivery in the third minute of first-half stoppage time. Mickel Miller settled it on seventy-one, pouncing on a loose pass from Samson Tovide, who had come on for his Huddersfield debut eight minutes earlier, then beating Murray Wallace and finishing. Ten of the eleven results went against our favourite, and by our own grading that was the only true upset among them. The other nine were near misses, which is a polite word for a model that kept picking the right side of a coin that would not land.

Four matches finished level and every one of them cost us. Burton Albion 2-2 Mansfield Town was the strongest home call on the card, and Burton led by two inside half an hour, with Nigel Clough watching from the away technical area at the club he took into the Football League. Adedeji Oshilaja, a former Burton defender, turned Charlie Webster's ball into his own net on sixteen; our data credits that goal to Burton. Jack Armer headed the second on twenty-eight from Caylan Vickers's cross. Michael Smith steered in Nathan Moriah-Welsh's cross on forty, and Lucas Akins, a substitute and himself a former Burton player, levelled it on seventy. Gary Bowyer was unsparing about his own side afterwards, saying they "weren't aggressive enough with everything and once we got the second goal we sat back".

At Oakwell we sided with the visitors, and Barnsley 1-1 Leicester City became the most stubborn point of the weekend. Liam Cullen put Leicester ahead on seven. Luca Connell was sent off on twenty-six for a challenge on Luke Thomas, and Barnsley then spent an hour a man down before Reyes Cleary drove the equaliser into the roof of the net on sixty-one. Oxford United 1-1 Cambridge United followed the same pattern of a lead surrendered: Siriki Dembele scored from Mark Harris's pass on fifteen, Ben Knight equalised from Dominic Ball's on fifty-seven, and Aaron Ramsey's side pushed without finding a third win in a row.

Sheffield Wednesday 0-0 Stockport County was the flat one, played in front of a crowd above thirty-two thousand. The visitors had much the better of the first half, hitting the post with a header and seeing a rebound cleared off the line, and the home support made their feelings known at the whistle. We had made Wednesday the favourites at home and were wrong in the mildest possible way.

The away wins were where the model came apart completely. Blackpool 2-4 Plymouth Argyle was the day's loudest result: Jordan Brown put Blackpool ahead on thirty, Oliver Irow answered on thirty-six and again on fifty-two, Harvey White made it three on fifty-seven, Jerry Yates pulled one back on seventy and Aribim Pepple finished it on eighty-nine. Luton Town 0-1 Bradford City turned on four minutes, Bobby Pointon taking Kayden Jackson's pass, and stayed that way for the rest of an afternoon Luton spent with the ball and without a goal; Harrison Ashby, who spent the back half of last season on loan at Bradford, was sent off for a second booking in the fifth minute of added time. Peterborough United 0-2 Doncaster Rovers was decided early and late and gave Doncaster their first win of the season: Alfie May slid in Leon Ayinde's cross on fifteen after a mistake by Harley Mills, and Isaac Hutchinson, a substitute, turned in another substitute's cross from Jordan Thomas on eighty-eight. Peterborough got fourteen shots away and not one of them on target. Wigan Athletic 0-1 Wycombe Wanderers came from a second-half corner, Cauley Woodrow flicking on and Dan Casey heading in on sixty-eight; Wigan had played two days after announcing the sudden death of their goalkeeping coach, Kevin Miller, at fifty-seven.

Which leaves the two home wins and the one call we got right. Reading 2-0 Notts County was it. Jack Marriott, already the division's leading scorer and the holder of League One's Goal of the Month award for August, headed in Haydon Roberts's cross four minutes after the restart and Kyreece Lisbie's on seventy-two. Leyton Orient 1-0 Stevenage was the other, and it belonged to a man who joined on a three-year deal on 3 September after leaving Middlesbrough: Alex Gilbert scored on seventy-nine from Idris El Mizouni's pass. Marking our own homework, the verdict is plain enough. Our consensus liked the home side in eight of the eleven and got one of those right; it liked the away side in the other three, and the away side won none of them. One from eleven is a number worth printing precisely because it is ours, and because the division spent Saturday saying something our model has been slow to hear.