EFL League Two REVIEW 19 Sep 2026: Barnet end Fleetwood Town's long unbeaten run, and four draws punish our home calls

We backed the home side in all twelve of League Two's Saturday fixtures, and seven of them delivered. The clearest evidence for the model came at the Hive, where Barnet beat Fleetwood Town 3-1 to end a Fleetwood run of nine competitive matches without defeat. Kabongo Tshimanga converted a penalty on ten minutes, Will Davies levelled on 36, and the game turned on two Barnet goals in three minutes after the hour, Charlie Lakin on 60 and Idris Kanu on 62. Barnet finished with ten men, Nnamdi Ofoborh going off on 85 minutes for a second booking. The one we had flagged before kick-off as the day's closest call, Chesterfield against York City, was settled comfortably enough in the end: Lee Bonis scored on 57 minutes and Dilan Markanday made it 2-0 on 90.

Five more home picks landed. Rochdale took the derby 2-0, Daniel Moss finishing a low cross on seven minutes and Dajaune Brown curling in his first for the club on 63. Walsall beat Port Vale 2-0, James Connolly heading in from a corner on the stroke of half-time and Andy Dallas adding a second on 89. Gillingham beat Bristol Rovers 3-0, James Brophy breaking a grim first hour on 55 before substitute Sheldon Kendall struck twice, on 85 and 89. Grimsby Town beat Crawley Town 2-0 having squandered an early penalty on 13 minutes, Iwan Morgan converting a second spot-kick on 30 and setting up Kieran Green on 42. Salford City needed until 77 minutes to see off Swindon Town 1-0, Joe Powell hitting the only goal. Micky Mellon offered no defence of Oldham's afternoon, saying afterwards that he had to "apologise for the performances" and taking full responsibility for the team he picked.

Four draws accounted for the misses, two of them with goals in. Colchester United and Cheltenham Town drew 1-1, and Colchester will feel it: Moses Sesay put them ahead on 66, Andreas Weimann equalised from the penalty spot on 78, and Jaden Williams was sent off on 83 with the home side chasing a winner. Crewe Alexandra, whom our model rated the strongest home side on the card, could only draw 1-1 with Shrewsbury Town after Jordan Gibson had scored on 24 minutes and George Lloyd replied on 39.

The other two finished goalless. Accrington Stanley and Newport County produced four bookings and a blank scoresheet at the Wham Stadium. Exeter City marked the club’s 125th anniversary, in a commemorative kit, with a 0-0 draw against Tranmere Rovers in which five players were booked.

The one away winner was Rotherham United, who won 1-0 at Northampton Town through a Paul Mullin penalty on 73 minutes. It was the only result of the day our model had entirely the wrong way round, and it capped a card where the home advantage we priced into every fixture held up just over half the time. On a Saturday that produced three goalless or one-goal home wins and four draws, our own homework marks out at seven right, five wrong, and no complaints about the five.