Premier League PREVIEW 19 Sep 2026: The model splits three ways as Arsenal visit an unbeaten Brighton

Five fixtures make up Saturday's Premier League card, and the model's clearest read is at the City Ground, where Nottingham Forest are given close to three chances in five to see off a Coventry City side yet to open its account this season. Its least certain call sits at the other end of the day, where Brighton and Hove Albion host Arsenal: the champions are favoured, but only just, with the draw and a Brighton win both very much alive. Everton are the other side backed with real confidence at home, against Ipswich Town, while Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United are both favourites without being comfortable ones, against visitors the model rates as live rather than makeweight.

Tottenham Hotspur host Aston Villa in the day's first kick-off with both clubs still to win in the league this season. Roberto De Zerbi has Pedro Porro and Sandro Tonali back after the knocks that kept them out of the midweek Carabao Cup trip to Anfield, and James Maddison is training with the group again, though De Zerbi wants him sharper before trusting him from the start; Mykhailo Mudryk, Dejan Kulusevski, Wilson Odobert and Xavi Simons remain unavailable. Unai Emery has Joao Gomes back from suspension but is missing Pau Torres, Leon Goretzka, Ian Maatsen and Amadou Onana, and goes into the game having admitted his side have lacked both results and performances in the league so far; Villa's more recent form came in the cup, a 3-1 win over Coventry City in which Tammy Abraham scored twice.

The day's tightest call sends Arsenal to Brighton, who mark their 125th anniversary at the Amex. Fabian Hurzeler reports no fresh injury concerns and could hand Lewis Dunk his 300th Premier League start and Bart Verbruggen his 100th league appearance for the club; Brighton's last league outing was a 5-0 win over Coventry City in which Pascal Gross became the first Brighton player, and only the second German after Mesut Ozil, to reach 50 Premier League assists. Arsenal arrive with the chance of an eighth straight win in all competitions, sealed most recently 2-0 at Sunderland when David Raya saved a penalty and Bruno Guimaraes marked his full debut with a goal, but Mikel Arteta goes into the international break with four defenders touch and go: Cristhian Mosquera, Ben White, Jurrien Timber and Piero Hincapie all missed the midweek Carabao Cup tie at Ipswich. Arteta was wary rather than triumphant: "We've got a really tough opponent tomorrow, so we're going to have to really earn the right to win the game."

Everton, unbeaten in all competitions, fielded a much-changed side to beat Wolverhampton Wanderers in the Carabao Cup in midweek, Charly Alcaraz scoring a late winner, and David Moyes could recall James Tarkowski, Jarrad Branthwaite, Tyrique George and Brennan Johnson from the bench for Ipswich Town's visit; Tyler Dibling, named man of the match against Wolves, will hope to keep his place. Ipswich, making their first visit to Everton's new stadium, are without only Jack Taylor after Zian Flemming's 90th-minute winner beat Crystal Palace, before a 4-2 Carabao Cup defeat at Arsenal in midweek.

At St James' Park, Newcastle United go into the game under a new head coach: Matthias Jaissle, formerly of Al Ahli, replaced Eddie Howe over the summer and wants a reaction after a 4-1 defeat at Leeds United, though he is without Anthony Elanga, Amar Dedic and Jacob Ramsey. Sergej Jakirovic, who knows Jaissle's methods from his own time around Salzburg's Red Bull system, expects a heavily pressing, man-marking Newcastle side, and arrives with as many as eight players missing, including goalkeeper Jack Butland, after a battling 2-2 draw at Chelsea.

The model's surest call of the day is back at the City Ground, where it gives Nottingham Forest close to three chances in five against a Coventry City side that remains pointless and goalless in the league. Oliver Glasner is without captain Ryan Yates, Nicolo Savona, who has had a setback in his recovery from knee surgery, and Nikola Milenkovic, but comes into the game off the back of a win at Aston Villa, with Forest still waiting for their first home league goal of the season. Frank Lampard's task has been complicated by an injury to Aurele Amenda and a suspension for Taiwo Awoniyi, sent off against Brighton, on top of the absences of Josh Eccles, Kaine Kesler-Hayden, Luke Woolfenden and Haji Wright; Coventry, back in the top flight after 25 years away, lost again to Villa in midweek, 1-3 in the Carabao Cup, having lost by the same scoreline in the league.