Premier League PREVIEW 20 Sep 2026: Andoni Iraola goes back to Bournemouth, and all eight of our models line up behind Leeds United and Manchester City

Four fixtures, and the model has rarely been this comfortable in two places and this stuck in the other two. At Elland Road and at the Etihad Stadium every one of our eight models picks the home side, a clean sweep twice over, with Manchester City given close to five chances in eight against Sunderland and Leeds United a shade under that against Crystal Palace. The rest of the card is a different animal. Fulham against Manchester United splits our models four and four, the consensus edging the visitors by the thinnest margin available, and at the Vitality Stadium the model leans to Liverpool without conviction, with two of the eight backing Bournemouth and the draw alive throughout. It is the day's least certain call, and it happens to be the day's best story.

Andoni Iraola takes Liverpool to Bournemouth, the club he managed for three years and took to their highest league finish, and he arrives knowing exactly what is waiting: "It's going to be a tricky one because they know very well what we try to do with or without the ball. I know their strengths and weaknesses." Marco Rose, who replaced him, has made a point of saying Iraola left the place in good order and that his own side intend to beat him anyway. Bournemouth come off the first European match in the club's history and the first European win, 2-1 at Real Sociedad on Thursday, with Veljko Milosavljevic, Julian Araujo, Amine Adli and Eli Kroupi out; their three previous league games all finished level, against Brentford, Newcastle United and Everton. Liverpool are without Conor Bradley, Federico Chiesa, Hugo Ekitike and Giovanni Leoni, but Joe Gomez is back and approaching three hundred appearances for the club. Iraola made ten changes for the midweek Carabao Cup tie and Liverpool still beat Tottenham Hotspur 3-1, and he thinks the calendar has for once fallen his way: Liverpool played on Tuesday, Bournemouth on Thursday.

Leeds United host Crystal Palace as the model's joint-firmest call of the weekend, and Elland Road has given it reason. Leeds beat Newcastle United 4-1 in their last league outing, Dominic Calvert-Lewin scoring twice and Noah Okafor adding another, and James Justin has been talking about the crowd as a twelfth man. Daniel Farke is without Harry Wilson, who has a quad problem, and Joe Rodon, while Ilia Gruev is available again after a long absence and most of ninety minutes with the Under-21s. Pierre Sage brings Palace north in awkward shape: Ipswich Town won 3-2 at Selhurst Park in their last league match, Axel Disasi is serving a suspension after being sent off in it, and Dean Henderson, Jean-Philippe Mateta and Chadi Riad are all out, with Walter Benitez in goal and Adam Wharton wearing the armband. Palace did win 4-0 against Lech Poznan in midweek, and Ismaila Sarr could start for the first time this season, though Sage has said not for the full match. Sage rates Leeds highly and said so; our models rate them more highly still.

Manchester City against Sunderland is the other unanimous verdict, and by percentage the single surest thing on the card. Enzo Maresca has won six in a row and has called this the stiffest test his side have faced, which sounds like manners until you look at what Sunderland have been doing: three 1-0 wins in all competitions, a 1-1 draw at Brentford, and a 1-0 win over AZ Alkmaar on Wednesday that was the club's first European victory in fifty-three years. Regis Le Bris has asked his players to embrace a week that took in Arsenal, Alkmaar and now the Etihad, and is prepared to rotate again, with Habib Diarra out for six to eight weeks with a hamstring injury. City are without Phil Foden, who is serving a three-match ban after his dismissal in the Manchester derby, while Jeremy Doku is close to a return. City's midweek 5-0 win over Norwich City handed debuts to three players, and the teenager Floyd Samba scored twice on his.

That leaves Craven Cottage, where our models cannot agree with each other. Four pick Fulham and four pick Manchester United, and the consensus settles on the visitors by a margin so small it is barely a preference at all. Alvaro Arbeloa, in his first season in English management, took a goalless draw at Anfield in his last league match and then won 3-2 at West Ham United in the Carabao Cup, a night he spent complaining about his own defending; Kenny Tete is out under concussion protocols after a head injury, Tom Cairney is still recovering from surgery and Ryan Sessegnon may return. Michael Carrick arrives having spent his press conference being asked about his job. Brighton and Hove Albion came from two goals down at Old Trafford in midweek to knock United out of the cup 3-2, and Carrick's answer was that his side have been in every game they have played and have to be better together. Luke Shaw could return after three matches out, and Carlos Baleba, who has yet to play since signing, travels with the squad. Of the four ties, this is the one the model would most like to watch from behind its hands.