MLS REVIEW 20 Sep 2026: Anders Dreyer twice pegs back Inter Miami, and only two of the model's seven home leans survive

Our model had a pre-match view on nine of the ten fixtures on this card, and it leaned to the home side in seven of them. The two it called the other way both came good, and emphatically: Philadelphia Union won 4-3 at Sporting Kansas City and Vancouver Whitecaps FC won 3-0 at Real Salt Lake. Of the seven home leans, only St. Louis City SC and Nashville SC delivered. Three of the rest finished level and two were lost outright. The tenth fixture, Inter Miami CF against San Diego FC, carries no archived pre-match line of ours, and it was the last of the ten to settle.

Inter Miami CF 2-2 San Diego FC. Anders Dreyer put the visitors ahead in the 12th minute, Messi levelled in the 23rd, and Suárez turned Inter Miami in front in the 75th from a de Paul pass. Dreyer scored again in the 82nd and San Diego left with a point. Both of their goals were his.

The wildest of the ten was at Sporting Kansas City, who were three goals up by the 16th minute and lost 3-4. André Luiz scored in the 5th minute and again in the 10th, and Wyatt Meyer made it three in the 16th. Philadelphia Union then scored three times between the 64th minute and the 68th, through Bruno Damiani, Cavan Sullivan and Milan Iloski, and went ahead in the 73rd when Zorhan Bassong put the ball into his own net. Our data credits that goal to Philadelphia, and it was the one that won the match.

Houston Dynamo FC also led by two and did not win. Guilherme struck a free kick from just outside the box in the 38th minute and Mateusz Bogusz converted a penalty in the 50th. FC Cincinnati pulled one back in the 73rd, Kévin Denkey cutting the ball back for Bryan Ramirez to tap in, and Denkey himself equalised from the penalty spot deep into stoppage time, after Kenji Mboma Dem had been fouled in the area. Pat Noonan, the Cincinnati head coach, rated the point higher than most: "I think it could be a deciding moment in this stretch run."

Colorado Rapids drew 3-3 with Seattle Sounders FC having led three separate times. Morgan Whittaker scored in the 28th minute and again in the 76th, either side of Donavan Phillip's goal in the 56th. Seattle replied in the 49th, Dejan Joveljić made it 3-2 in the 79th, and Caden Clark levelled in stoppage time. The two home leans that lost outright were at Minnesota United FC and at Portland Timbers. Pablo Ruíz put LA Galaxy in front in the 12th minute, Marcus Caldeira equalised for Minnesota in the 23rd and Kelvin Yeboah converted a penalty in the 28th to turn it around, before João Klauss in the 76th and Marco Reus in the 80th took it back and LA Galaxy won 3-2. Portland's was the thinner defeat: Aleksey Miranchuk's goal in the 28th minute was the only one of the match, and Atlanta United FC won 1-0.

Nashville SC 3-0 Chicago Fire FC was the most consequential of the straightforward wins. Sam Surridge scored in the 33rd minute, Cristian Espinoza in the 78th and Hany Mukhtar in the 87th, and the result made Nashville the first club into this season's MLS Cup playoffs. St. Louis City SC beat Toronto FC 3-1 through Carlo Holse in the 41st minute, Tomas Totland in the 54th and Simon Becher in the 68th, the third after Conrad Wallem seized a loose pass; Theo Corbeanu nodded in a stoppage-time consolation. A later St. Louis goal by Damion Downs, which would have been his first for the club, was ruled out for offside after a video review. Vancouver Whitecaps FC won 3-0 at Real Salt Lake with goals from Brian White in the 9th minute, Thomas Müller in the 29th and Yadaly Diaby in the 64th.

That leaves FC Dallas and Austin FC, who drew 0-0, the only fixture of the ten in which nobody scored and, by some distance, the one our model was surest about. Marking our own homework: both away calls landed, the home calls on Nashville and St. Louis landed, and the remaining five got away from us — three of them as draws where we had expected home wins, two as away wins we did not see coming at all.