MLS REVIEW 26 Sep 2026: Milan Iloski's first-half hat-trick headlines a Friday that went against our model twice out of four

Four MLS matches were played on Friday 26 September, and our model called only two of them correctly — the two draws both went against a home favourite, and the one true upset produced the away win.

Atlanta United and New York City FC drew 2-2 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. NYCFC led inside five minutes when an Atlanta defender turned the ball into his own net, and Giuliano Galoppo equalised five minutes later on his home debut, his first goal for the club. Andres Perea put NYCFC back ahead early in the second half, before substitute A. Fortune levelled it again in the 74th minute, a goal that also tied the Atlanta United club appearance record for a Homegrown player. Our consensus had favoured Atlanta; the draw split the difference.

CF Montreal beat FC Cincinnati 3-1. Daniel Rios opened the scoring in the 25th minute, and after Tom Barlow equalised for Cincinnati just past the hour, Prince Owusu scored twice in three minutes -- a penalty and then a second from open play, set up by Rios -- to settle it. Our consensus had favoured Montreal.

Charlotte FC lost 1-0 at home to Chicago Fire, a result our consensus had not expected. The only goal of the game came in the 58th minute, an own goal credited to Chicago after Charlotte defender L. de la Torre turned the ball into his own net. It was Charlotte's first defeat in eight matches.

Philadelphia Union beat Orlando City 4-2, with Milan Iloski scoring a first-half hat-trick -- a penalty, then two more either side of half-time -- for his third of the season, a club record for hat-tricks in a single campaign. Indiana Vassilev also scored and set up two of Iloski's goals. Antoine Griezmann and Martin Ojeda replied for Orlando either side of the 80th minute, but the game was already settled. Iloski said afterwards, "it is a full team effort, and we really showed our depth tonight." Our consensus had favoured Philadelphia, extending what is now a club-record unbeaten run.