Scottish Championship REVIEW 19 Sep 2026: Lewis O'Donnell wins it for Stenhousemuir, and both draws catch the model out

Of the four calls our model made on this Scottish Championship card, the one it liked most was at Ochilview, where Stenhousemuir were clear favourites at home to Arbroath. Stenhousemuir 1 Arbroath 0, and the goal belonged to the player the division has just decorated: Lewis O'Donnell, named the Championship's Player of the Month for August, scored in the 34th minute and that was the afternoon. The last half-hour turned scratchy, with Sean Mackie and Brody Paterson booked for Arbroath and Scott Bright and Callum Penman for Stenhousemuir, but Marvin Bartley's side saw it out. For a club whose manager collected the August award alongside his midfielder, and who came into this division through the play-offs in May, it was as clean a confirmation of our reading as the day produced.

The model's next firmest call was at Almondvale, where it backed Livingston at home to Inverness Caledonian Thistle, and that one it got wrong. Livingston 2 Inverness Caledonian Thistle 2. Brooklyn Kabongolo put the home side ahead in the 24th minute and the game ran to our script until just before the hour. Layton Stewart, who had come on in the 54th minute, levelled in the 58th; Alfie Bavidge, introduced in the 74th, put Inverness in front in the 76th. Robbie Muirhead pulled Livingston level again in the 79th, and the closing minutes brought bookings for Tyrese Sinclair, Roddy MacGregor and Muirhead in place of a winner.

At Firhill, Partick Thistle 0 Raith Rovers 0 was the fixture our numbers had declined to separate before kick-off, with a home win and a draw priced within a whisker of each other, and the draw is what turned up. Mark Wilson emptied his bench in the last half-hour, Gary Mackay-Steven, Tony Watt, Ben Stanway and Ethan Ingram all going on, while Dougie Imrie had moved earlier, sending for Scott Brown and Arron Lyall in the 56th minute and Dylan Easton in the 64th. Oisin Smyth was booked for Thistle; Paul McMullan, Lyall and George Oakley for Rovers. Thistle's home league record, unbeaten since April 2025, came through the afternoon intact.

Cappielow gave the model its other correct call. Greenock Morton 0 Dunfermline Athletic 1, Dylan Lobban scoring in the 62nd minute for the only goal on the Clyde. Our numbers had leaned to the visitors and Neil Lennon's side duly took them, following up their win away at Queen's Park. Calvin Okike's booking deep in stoppage time was the last thing of note in Greenock.

Where the model was emphatic, at Ochilview, it was right, and its away call at Cappielow came in too. Where it merely leaned, at Almondvale and at Firhill, both games ended level, shock draws by our own reckoning and a reminder that a narrow home lean in this division is barely a lean at all.