Scottish League Two REVIEW 19 Sep 2026: Stranraer put five past Elgin City and leave our model with one from five

The fixture our model was most sure of is the one it got most wrong. Elgin City were the clearest home call on the card at Borough Briggs, and Stranraer beat them 5-1. Seb Mason scored inside seven minutes and Daniel McManus added a second on thirteen. Lyall Booth pulled one back for Elgin on thirty-six, but McManus scored again on the stroke of half-time, Mason got his second a minute into the second half, and Lewis Dobbie, whose scoring run had been the best reason to take Stranraer seriously coming into the afternoon, finished it on eighty-one.

This morning's preview had New Central Park as the tightest call of the five, Kelty Hearts and Edinburgh City all but inseparable with our pick leaning to the home side. Edinburgh City declined to make it close. Lennon Walker scored in the second minute, Jason Jarvis converted a penalty on twenty-five and Tommy North made it three before the interval. Robbie Cole replied for Kelty on sixty-eight and it ended 1-3. Edinburgh City carried the form the preview was built around straight into Fife with them.

Dumbarton against Spartans was the round's other reversal. We made Spartans the favourites, and they came to The Rock on a four-match unbeaten run; Dumbarton beat them 3-0. Deryn Lang scored in the third minute, an own goal by Cameron Russell made it two on sixty-one, and Josiah Sowa, the Queen's Park loanee, finished the scoring three minutes into stoppage time. Frank McKeown's side have had little to celebrate on the pitch since the rebuild began, and this was the afternoon that looked like the plan working.

At Forthbank, Stirling Albion and Clyde drew 1-1, the home side down to ten men from the twenty-fifth minute. Sam Campbell put Clyde ahead on nineteen, Russell McLean levelled on twenty-three, and two minutes after that Kyle Banner went off for Stirling, booked on fourteen and sent off on twenty-five. Nothing more was scored, which with an hour of the game left and a man in hand says as much about Stirling's defending as it does about Clyde's finishing. Darren Young's return to a dugout he once occupied brought his side a point rather than the win our model expected of them.

That left Forfar Athletic and Annan Athletic, settled by Luca Perrie on twenty-two and nothing else, 1-0, and it was the only one of the five our model called right. It was also the one where we took the opposite view to the betting market, which made Annan the favourites. The other four all went against our pick, and by our own measure not one of them was a shock: each is filed as a near miss, a close reading that landed on the wrong side. A round that marks one from five is worth saying plainly rather than tucking away at the bottom.