Scottish Premiership REVIEW 15 Sep 2026: Aberdeen thrash Motherwell as our model's three Premiership picks all fail

Aberdeen's 4-0 win at Fir Park was the day's most one-sided scoreline and, by our own model's reckoning, its biggest upset: we had made Motherwell the clear favourite at home. Gavin Molloy put the visitors ahead in the 38th minute with a 25-yard strike after a Chris Cadden cross was headed clear, and Connor Ronan doubled the lead less than a minute into the second half. Substitute Ayoub Mouloua added a third in the 76th minute from a Ronan pass, picking up a caution in the same passage of play, and Kevin Nisbet completed the scoring in the 87th minute, converting after goalkeeper Marius Muller supplied the assist.

At Falkirk, the home side overturned an away favourite and inflicted Hearts' first defeat in ten matches across all competitions. Ben Krauhaus put the Bairns ahead in the eighth minute, finishing after Ryan Strain beat the offside trap and cut the ball back; Krauhaus did not see out the game, replaced through injury in the 57th minute. James Wilson levelled for Hearts in the 22nd, sweeping home a Josh McPake cross, before Owen Eames won it for Falkirk in the 68th, driving into the box after a Hearts giveaway and finishing low. Our model had favoured Hearts to win away — a pick that did not survive the night.

Kilmarnock won 1-0 at Easter Road through a George Stanger goal in the 40th minute and held on with ten men after Djenairo Daniels was sent off in second-half stoppage time, in the 92nd minute. It was a heavy workload for a player whose manager, Neil McCann, had said only weeks earlier that his minutes would be carefully managed on his return from nearly ten months out with a knee injury. Hibernian, who had banned their Block Seven supporters' group from Easter Road for the night after pyrotechnics use earlier in the season, could not find a way past Kilmarnock's defence. Our model had made Hibernian the narrow favourite — the third Premiership pick of the round to fail.

Three fixtures, three failed model picks: Motherwell, Hearts and Hibernian were all favoured beforehand, and all three lost.